Tuesday, June 5, 2012

The Old Guard's worst nightmare: Manuel López Obrador

MGRR News Analysis -
Old Guard PANistas ready to abandon Josefina, all to stop The Leftist - so says PRD




Politics make strange bedfellows, it is said. As Mexico counts down the remaining 25 days to July 1, all of the old PAN bosses in this nation are forging an off-the-books alliance to do whatever is necessary to stop that which terrifies them most: a victory by Democratic Revolution Party candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The old PAN power-breakers are prepared to abandon party, to abandon all the political ideals upon which their careers were built, to abandon millions of the party faithful, to abandon personal integrity. They're most certainly prepared to abandon Josefina Vázquez Mota, PAN's standard bearer, who soundly trounced her two male opponents in last February's primary (Josefina Vázquez Mota sweeps PAN primary). They're prepared to make a temporary truce of sorts with PRI, all to crush a common enemy.

That's the political analysis of PRD senator Carlos Navarrete Ruiz. I think he's right.

Vicente Fox brazenly betrayed Josefina yesterday - for the second time in less than two months. He spoke of putting his "love for Mexico" ahead of partisan politics. One is left to wonder who, or what, Fox wouldn't betray. PAN senators, many of them, today called for his expulsion from the party. There should be no need to debate the proposal at length.

I suspect that for Fox, plunging the knife into Josefina was all the easier because she is the first female presidential candidate to have come so far. Yes, Vázquez Mota served as one of his cabinet secretaries a decade ago, but this is different. This race is for the Big Prize. I suspect that in the mind of the imperious Vicente Fox, Josefina isn't quite worthy of the presidency. She's a woman, after all, and this country remains steeped in machismo.

For the PAN Old Guard, fear and loathing of the leftist candidate are even more powerful uniting forces than whatever built-in gender biases they may hold. Sen. Navarrete said today that pre-eminent PAN spokesman Diego Fernández de Cevallos will be the next to turn against his party's candidate and to endorse Enrique Peña Nieto. For anybody who has ever heard Cevallos speak about López Obrador, that surely will come as no surprise. The venom fairly drips from his mouth when he does so.

López Obrador was in distant third place when the campaign opened on Mar. 30, and he remained mired there for a long time. But not anymore. Everybody knows, whatever they may care to acknowledge on the public record, that this race is now entirely between PRI and PRD. López Obrador, who lost in 2006 by a mere 0.59% of the vote, could deliver an encore performance in 2012.

That's PRI's worst nightmare. And PAN's as well.

Jun. 7: At his morning press conference López Obrador was particularly confident today, telling reporters his campaign is "on track" and he expects to win by a comfortable margin on July 1. It's hard to say if the man knows something the professional pollsters don't, or if he just prays a lot. His opponents dismiss his bravado, but what are they really thinking?

U.K.'s Guardian reveals Televisa-EPN deal: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/06/uks-guardian-reveals-televisa-pri-deal.html.
Vicente Fox, a PRIsta in very thin disguise: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/06/vicente-fox-prista-in-very-thin.html#more.
Enrique Peña Nieto hits new campaign low: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/05/enrique-pena-nieto-falling-dollar.html#more.
Mexican presidential race tightens (May 30): http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/05/mexican-presidential-race-tightens.html.
López Obrador hits personal best in polls (May 25): http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/05/lopez-obrador-hits-personal-best-in.html.
Mexico's campaign begins: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/03/mexicos-presidential-campaign-opens.html#more.

Spanish political commentary
Exhorta a PRI y PAN a reconocer resultados de elección: http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/70194c7c7acb97bdf79d6d6148c4f6dc.
Fernández de Cevallos expresará pronto su apoyo a Peña Nieto: http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/bbe18cfb71f1fbf3c01899f796fa77eb.
El mentiroso Vicente Fox - "Mi amor por México, por encima de partidos": http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/bbe18cfb71f1fbf3c01899f796ec4bd0.
Líderes panistas exigen la expulsión de Vicente Fox: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/197230.html.
Imperdonable que Fox llame a votar por Peña Nieto: http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/851607.html.

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